Summaries of the regionally averaged projected changes in 11 climate variables are available for download in spreadsheet format. These data are available for each of the ten VCP19 Regions (see the map of regions here ).These region-wide values were computed from the gridded change data described below so represent future change compared to the mean climate of 1986-2005 (see graph below). The spreadsheets also provide available GCM results computed using the relevant 'GCM Region'. The summary tab of each spreadsheet presents the results from the CCAM high-resolution simulations with notes indicating if the GCM results expand the range of projected change.
These data are ideal for a first look at plausible future climates, particularly for a 'first pass climate impacts assessment'. Each spreadsheet file contains a ReadMe tab that describes the data in detail.
Click the appropriate download link below.
The 5 km projection data were produced using CCAM to downscale six host global climate models (GCMs) for two greenhouse gas emissions pathways, medium emissions (RCP4.5) and high emissions (RCP8.5). See the Technical Report (download from here ) for more detail.
The data are provided in NetCDF format and are stored on a THREDDS server in a CORDEX DRS compliant directory structure.
Horizontal datum: All gridded data are on the WGS84 geographic datum.
The free software, Panoply is useful for viewing NetCDF data and can also export data to text and csv formats.
Instructions for importing NetCDF format into ArcGIS are provided here .
The links below provide shortcuts directly to the relevant data. If you have problems with downloads consistently failing, please check the CCIA News & Updates page for advice on any relevant outages or bugs. If there are no relevant outages or bugs listed, please contact us.
Projected change (compared with 1986-2005) data are available on the 5 km CCAM grid for each of the six simulations. These data provide the 20-year averaged monthly, seasonal and annual changes for four time periods centred on 2030, 2050, 2070 & 2090 (see figure) for two greenhouse gas emissions pathways (RCP4.5 & RCP8.5).
Click the "Gridded (5 km) change datasets" button below, then:
For assistance understanding the file names, check the VCP19 File Naming Convention which applies to all VCP 19 datasets, except the spreadsheets described above.
For many purposes (such as a quick first look at likely areas of greatest vulnerability), projected change relative to 1986-2005 is sufficient.
For detailed impact assessments though, you're likely to need to have data showing likely future temperatures, rainfall amounts etc., perhaps as time-series. If this is the case you can:
These application-ready datasets combine gridded observed data with gridded climate projections to produce plausible future climate data at daily or monthly time steps on the high-resolution 5 km grid. These data are appropriate to use as inputs to quantitative impact assessment processes, such as crop growth modelling and species distribution modelling.
The datasets have been developed using a quantile-quantile scaling approach. In this technique, high-quality observational 5 x 5 km gridded data have been modified by the projected percentile changes from the high-resolution climate modelling. This produces internally consistent datasets that preserve the spatial and temporal relationships in the observations while also capturing any projected changes in climate variability from the climate model.
A detailed description of a similar method is available here , under "quantile-quantile scaling". Note that for VCP19:
Click the "Application-ready gridded (5 km) datasets" button below, then:
For assistance understanding the file names, check the VCP19 File Naming Convention which applies to all VCP 19 datasets, except the spreadsheets described above.Application-ready gridded (5 km) datasets
These datasets are derived from the gridded application-ready daily time-series described above. The data have been analysed to find the number of days (on average) when:
Results for annual, seasonal and monthly totals are provided.
As these datasets are derived from the application-ready daily time-series described above, the same limitations apply to the thresholds datasets.
Click the "Thresholds datasets (5 km gridded)" button below, then:
These application-ready data are available for a selection of towns across Victoria. These data have been extracted from the appropriate grid cell of the gridded application-ready datasets described above. This approach has the advantage of allowing data to be obtained for any location across Victoria.
However, the same limitations apply to these data as are described above under "Application-ready gridded datasets".
Click the "Application-ready town/location datasets" button below, then:
For assistance understanding the file names, check the VCP19 File Naming Convention which applies to all VCP 19 datasets, except the spreadsheets described above.Application-ready town (point location) datasets
In the very near future, the gridded observed datasets that were used to produce the application-ready gridded datasets will be available for download here.
A wide range of observed data are available from the Bureau of Meteorology's Climate Data Online portal.
Clicking the button below will take you out of Climate Change in Australia, to the Bureau of Meteorology's website.BoM Climate Data Online
For the most advanced users, the raw CCAM simulation outputs are available for download. It is important to understand that all raw model output will contain some biases which must be accounted for when they are used (e.g. by applying a bias-correction). When doing so, it is crucial to ensure the relationships among the different variables are maintained (they must be 'internally consistent'). The "projected change" and "application-ready" datasets described above are free of such biases and are internally consistent.
The raw datasets provide data for a much larger number of climate metrics, as described on the CCAM Wiki .RCP4.5 Raw Model Datasets RCP8.5 Raw Model Datasets
Page updated: 28th November 2019