Journal Papers

The science of the 2015 Projections

Various aspects of the research undertaken during the development of the Climate Change in Australia projections has been documented in the following peer-reviewed journal papers.

Bhend J, Whetton P (2015) 'Evaluation of simulated recent climate change in Australia.' Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal 65, 4-18. (go to publisher's website )

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Dowdy AJ, Grose MR, Timbal B, Moise A, Ekström M, Bhend J, Wilson L (2015) 'Rainfall in Australia’s eastern seaboard: a review of confidence in projections based on observations and physical processes.' Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal 65, 107-126. (go to publisher's website )

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Grose MR, Bhend J, Argueso D, Ekström M, Dowdy AJ, Hoffmann P, Evans JP, Timbal B (2015) 'Comparison of various climate change projections of eastern Australian rainfall.' Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal 65, 72-89. (go to publisher's website )

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Grose M, Timbal B, Wilson L, Bathols J, Kent D (2015) 'The subtropical ridge in CMIP5 models, and implications for projections of rainfall in southeast Australia.' Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal 65, 90-106. (go to publisher's website )

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Hope P, Grose MR, Timbal B, Dowdy AJ, Bhend J, Katzfey JJ, Bedin T, Wilson L, Whetton PH (2015) 'Seasonal and regional signature of the projected southern Australian rainfall reduction.' Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal 65, 54-71. (go to publisher's website )

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McInnes KL, Church J, Monselesan D, Hunter JR, O’Grady JG, Haigh ID, Zhang X (2015) 'Information for Australian Impact and Adaptation Planning in response to Sea-level Rise.' Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal 65, 127-149. (go to publisher's website )

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Moise A, Wilson L, Grose M, Whetton P, Watterson I, Bhend J, Bathols J, Hanson L, Erwin T, Bedin T, Heady C, Rafter T (2015) 'Evaluation of CMIP3 and CMIP5 Models over the Australian Region to Inform Confidence in Projections.' Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal 65, 19-53. (go to publisher's website )

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Other papers and reports

Brown, J. R., Lengaigne, M., Lintner, B. R., Widlansky, M. J., van der Wiel, K., Dutheil, C., Linsley, B. K., Matthews, A. J., and Renwick, J. (2020). South Pacific Convergence Zone dynamics, variability and impacts in a changing climate. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 1, 530-543. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-020-0078-2 .

Clarke, J. M., Grose, M., Thatcher, M., Hernaman, V., Heady, C., Round, V., Rafter, T., Trenham, C., and Wilson, L. (2019). Victorian Climate Projections 2019 Technical Report. CSIRO Climate Science Centre. (State of Victoria.) VCP19 Publications (this site) .

Dowdy, A. J. (2018). Climatological Variability of Fire Weather in Australia. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 57, 221-234. https://doi.org/10.1175/jamc-d-17-0167.1 .

Dowdy, A. J. (2020). Climatology of thunderstorms, convective rainfall and dry lightning environments in Australia. Climate dynamics. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05167-9 .

Dowdy, A. J. and Catto, J. L. (2017). Extreme weather caused by concurrent cyclone, front and thunderstorm occurrences. Scientific Reports 7, 40359. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep40359 .

Dowdy, A. J., Ye, H., Pepler, A., Thatcher, M., Osbrough, S. L., Evans, J. P., Di Virgilio, G., and McCarthy, N. (2019). Future changes in extreme weather and pyroconvection risk factors for Australian wildfires. Scientific Reports 9, 10073. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-46362-x .

Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub (2020). Scenario analysis of climate-related physical risk for buildings and infrastructure: climate science guidance. National Environmental Science Program (NESP) Earth Systems and Climate Change Science (ESCC) Hub for the Climate Measurement Standards Initiative. https://www.cmsi.org.au/reports .

Kirono, D. G. C., Round, V., Heady, C., Chiew, F. H. S., and Osbrough, S. (2020). Drought projections for Australia: Updated results and analysis of model simulations. Weather and Climate Extremes 30, 100280. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2020.100280 .

Grose, M. R., Foster, S., Risbey, J. S., Osbrough, S., and Wilson, L. (2019). Using indices of atmospheric circulation to refine southern Australian winter rainfall climate projections. Climate Dynamics.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04880-4 .

Grose, M. R., Gregory, J., Colman, R., and Andrews, T. (2018). What climate sensitivity index is most useful for projections? Geophysical Research Letters 45, 1559-1566. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075742 .

Grose, M. R., Narsey, S., Delage, F., Dowdy, A. J., Bador, M., Boschat, G., Chung, C., Kajtar, J., Rauniyar, S., Freund, M., Lyu, K., Rashid, H. A., Zhang, X., Wales, S., Trenham, C., Holbrook, N. J., Cowan, T., Alexander, L. V., Arblaster, J. M., and Power, S. B. (2020). Insights from CMIP6 for Australia's future climate. Earth's Future 8. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001469 .

Grose, M. R., Syktus, J., Thatcher, M., Evans, J. P., Ji, F., Rafter, T., and Remenyi, T. (2019). The role of topography on projected rainfall change in mid-latitude mountain regions. Climate dynamics. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04736-x .

Watterson, I. (2017). The distribution of daily rainfall in Australia and simulated future changes. Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science 67, 160-180. https://doi.org/10.22499/3.6703.002 .